Churchill of course was talking about Russia’s unclear intentions at the dawn of World War II, but he could have been talking about Canada’s equally unclear border opening intentions in the second summer of Covid. We have been sorting tea leaves, analyzing ambiguities, and parsing every word from on high. It is a guessing game. From statements made by Trudeau in the past few days we know only that unvaccinated visitors will not be welcomed for “quite a while”. OK. But for all of us fully vaccinated potential visitors the only message is that there will be a message “in the coming weeks”. That’s just not soon enough for 52 of our Scott Lake Lodge guests. We have simply run out of days to provide them proper notice to arrange their travel and schedules. And to provide time for our 30-strong staff to arrive on the island and make all the preparations necessary to offer the world class service we have become known for.

Regretfully, we are now cancelling the two groups of Weeks 13 and 14, covering the dates from August 7 to August 17. We will be calling all those guests over the next few days to discuss their options. 

While it has become routine of late to just lay the blame on Canada’s Prime Minister, in truth he just being a politician, one who follows not leads. A recent public opinion poll of Canadians demonstrated that Canadians are quite accepting of the non-essential travel ban: only 15% wanted the border opened “now” while a majority (56%) did not want the border open until fall or 2022.

So, our last stand, the final hill, will be determined by July 26 when we will either announce an opening date of August 17 or we will cancel the remainder of the season. What makes this issue difficult to understand is the tremendous progress Canada has made with their vaccination effort. Since our last report, just two weeks ago, they have gone from 22% fully vaccinated to 44%. In another week or so they will exceed the fully vaccinated percentage of the US, even though they had a very late start. We were so close . . .

We will keep the now even smaller group of possible guests informed if any meaningful information develops before July 26.

It’s summer, right? Time for a roller coaster ride! If you have followed the Canadian Border Saga, you don’t need one. All our staff and guests have been on a dizzying ride for the past fifteen months. We are all exhausted, but the ride continues.

In our June update, we reported that the government had finally settled on the key metric for opening the border. Whee!  We’re at the top. Then we found out that the number would be 75% of the adult population fully vaccinated. Damn. We’re at the bottom since Canada was at only 4% fully vaccinated at that time: an open border seemed remote. Now a month later Canada is 22% fully vaccinated and adding between 1 and 2% a day to that total. With 76% of their over-12 population having had one dose of the two dose vaccines, getting to 75% fully vaccinated is getting more realistic. Back near the top of the ride? Close, but no cigar. While the progress north of the border has been remarkable, especially considering the very slow start, it’s not good enough for us to confidently project that we can open Scott Lake Lodge on the previously announced July 28th date.

SADLY, WE ARE NOW CANCELLING OUR WEEKS 11 AND 12, COVERING THE DATES OF JULY 28 THROUGH AUGUST 7. FOR THESE TWO GROUPS WE HAVE SIMPLY RUN OUT OF TIME TO MAKE NEEDED PREPARATIONS. ALL CUSTOMERS IN THOSE TWO GROUPS WILL BE GETTING A PHONE CALL THIS WEEK TO DISCUSS THEIR OPTIONS.

But there are still 40 days until the Week 13 group could arrive. At 1.5% fully vaccinated rate per day, Canada could reach their magic number in time for an early August lodge opening. Could. Everything else would have to run perfectly: a Covid passport or something similar, increased staffing at border crossings, etc. We know we can be ready, even though it will be quite an effort to ramp up on short notice. Many Saskatchewan lodges have already thrown in the towel for the 2021 season, but we will hang onto ours for a bit longer.

There have been encouraging signs. Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, has been back peddling like Michael Jackson doing his famous Moonwalk over the past few days, saying easing of the border is “weeks not months away”. It looks like he’s trying to signal things could move quickly. Quickly enough? We don’t know, but we can hope and plan. It is very unfortunate that the Canadian government just can’t seem to reach clarity on this situation, but we have to deal with the information we have, as vague and incomplete as it is, and make the best decisions for our customers.

Both of those timelines allow customers nearly a month to secure commercial plane tickets and arrange their lives. We do not recommend getting those commercial tickets yet if you don’t have them. The arrival times for flights from Calgary and Toronto to Saskatoon have been fluid. To keep safe float flying, we will need to keep our charter flight from Saskatoon to Stony Rapids at the 3:30 PM time. As most of our guests already do, you may need to arrive in Saskatoon the day before our charter flight.

This is the best we can do under the circumstances. If Trudeau waves his magic wand and opens with border with only a requirement of proof of vaccination (please note that we are reasonably assuming a hard copy or digital proof will be required—bring both if we get to that point), we will be on the phone 18 hours a day to contact everyone booked for August 7th forward. That’s a Hail Mary pass completion, but in this crazy era anything is possible. We’ll keep watching and waiting.

For weeks, the management of Scott Lake Lodge has been asking anyone and everyone in Canada’s chain of command what the key metric will be for opening the US/Canadian border. Well, we finally got an answer, but it’s one we don’t like.

The government’s current position (it could change) demands that 75% of the Canadian population be fully (two shots) vaccinated prior to the opening of the border. Considering that just under 4% of the population has both doses now, it might seem like an impossible mountain to climb, but it’s not as bad as it sounds. Canada has gone with a single dose first strategy and have just over half of their population covered with the first shot. After many delays, their deliveries of vaccine have increased dramatically. Currently Canada’s vaccinations per capita exceed that of the US. Canada will hit that benchmark. But exactly when?

Looking at the math of expected vaccine deliveries from government sources, we are convinced that it will not happen in time for our guests arriving before July 28.

TO HELP OUR JULY GUESTS PLAN THEIR SUMMER, WE ARE NOW CANCELLING WITH REGRET OUR WEEKS 7, 8, 9 AND 10, COVERING THE FOUR GROUPS STARTING ON JULY 8 AND ENDING ON JULY 28.  

We do want to keep everyone’s options open for trips starting on July 28. There are a lot of optimistic signals over the past week. At last, discussions between the US and Canada have started over opening procedures. Also, Canada is in discussions with the European Union about international travel protocols. Since the EU (in the near future) will allow international travelers into the EU countries for vaccinated people, Canada may reconsider their position on not having any special consideration for vaccinated travelers. That, of course, is pure speculation on our part, but there is still hope for some season at Scott Lake Lodge.

Our staff will be on payroll in early June and will be on call to get to our island in the far north on short notice. Our required Covid plans have been submitted. We have the transportation links from Saskatoon to the Lodge secured. Our infrastructure will be ready. Once that stop light at the border turns green, we will do everything we can to get as many people as possible on our beautiful northern waters.

As we did last year, we will have a small work crew on the island for June and July to complete the construction work started last summer. There will be no rest for them as they make our facilities just a little bit better. There will be rest though for the fish on Scott and the 24 flyout lakes. They will patiently await your arrival. We want to thank you for your patience and loyalty as we sort through the Covid mess. We hope you can wet a line somewhere this summer.

As promised a month ago, we have been waiting and watching. Carefully. While the Covid news on the US side of the closed border has been a stream of good news with the return to normal life just around the corner, the news from the north is not so good. Canada is in the grip of a third wave of infection that has created their greatest health crisis of the pandemic. Ontario, the most populous province and politically the big dog of the country, is in a tight lock down with their highest positivity rates of the pandemic. Several other provinces are also locked down. There is nothing encouraging to report from the north.

EARLY SEASON CANCELLATIONS

We made a tough call this week. Weighing the best available evidence, we have cancelled Weeks 1-6, our June 14th to July 8th trips. We made that call by weighing the best evidence available on the prospects of the US/Canadian border opening. We are assuming that the current border closure currently in effect until May 21 will be extended to June 21. If the border does open then, we will need a couple of weeks to orchestrate the wide range of logistics required to offer a world class fishing trip. If it’s humanly possible, we will get it done. This has been a fluid, fast moving situation; we don’t want to sabotage your trip on a hunch. We will continue to press for more clarity from governmental officials and report back with any breaking news. Everyone wants to get back on northern waters.

CHARTER FLIGHT REVISION

In recent days there have been several fight time changes into the Saskatoon airport. To accommodate guests who are planning on flying into Saskatoon on the same day as the charter flight, we are changing our charter flight departure to Stony Rapids to from 3:30 PM until, 4:30 PM. To keep a margin of safety for our float flights from Stony Rapids to the lodge we cannot extend that time any longer. If you feel your connections are too tight consider arriving, as do roughly half our customers, the night prior to the charter flight. Obviously, there are a lot of balls in the air here. We will do our best to catch them all.

Can we be certain that the border will be open without restrictions by July 8? Absolutely not. We are dealing with uncertainties, but we’re trying to keep options open. Should you book your commercial flights now? Tough call, one we can’t make for you. Most airlines have been generous about offering credits for cancelled flights, but that could change; many of our customers are holding off. We’re short on crystal balls.

We will keep you in the loop whenever we have enough clarity to make decisions. We wish it were different. Our staff will be on salary and on call to arrive on our substantially refurbished island as soon as we get the green lift. All of the Scott Lake team will welcome you with open arms when the time is right.

Making Lemonade

With the border closed and the Lodge empty, we decided to make some lemonade out of those sour lemons. We brought in a 12-person work crew to revitalize the island infrastructure. It proved to be an extremely productive summer, constructing new buildings and re-staining all 28 log faced buildings on the island. That alone took two people almost the entire summer, but it was worth it. The entire island is refreshed and looks amazing.

The New Fly Fisher TV Show

While the border for our US customers was closed last summer, it didn’t matter to the Canadian-based crew of The New Fly Fisher, a video production company that pumps out great fly-fishing shows. We managed to convince the New Fly Fisher team to visit a totally empty Scott Lake (boy, that was a tough sell.)

Led by host Phil Rowley, the crew had all 160,000 acres of Scott and Premier Lakes to themselves and made the best of the opportunity, capturing some dramatic top water pike action and some surprisingly great trout action in mid-summer—all on fly rods. Unlike most “grip and grin” fishing shows, The New Fly Fisher productions teach as well as entertain. Drawing on the talent and expertise of our own Scott guides as well as the film crew, the producers provide detailed descriptions of fish behavior, habitat, presentation methods and of course gear—all fly anglers love to hear about rods, lines and flies.

For the pike sequences the show focuses on top water flies with smashing results. There is nothing in fishing film quite like the slow-mo of a pike engulfing top water flies. For the trout action, Phil shows that lake trout are not just an early or late season activity. With the right lines and techniques even mid-summer lakers can be talked into a dance on the end of an 8wt. Combine the exceptional Scott Lake fishery and guiding with good electronics, tackle and techniques and you’ll put lake trout on the end of your line in any season.

Ask a Guide – They Know What Works

Keep Calm and Fish On

Whatever happens with the damn border this summer make sure you go fishing somewhere. We will be ready and more than willing to take care of our guests when the time is right. We know the fish are ready!